XAUUSD价格趋势分析 (2026-02-04 03:00:21)

Methodology

To independently verify and provide a confidence assessment of the EA system’s trading plan, I will use the following technical analysis methods:

  1. Moving Averages (MA): Calculate the 5-period Moving Average (MA(5)) and the 288-period Bollinger Bands.
  2. Bollinger Bands (BB): Calculate the 288-period Bollinger Bands with a 2 standard deviation (SD) width.
  3. Trend Analysis: Analyze the direction and strength of the trend using the MA(5) and BB.
  4. Support and Resistance Levels: Identify key support and resistance levels based on recent price action.
  5. Market Session Considerations: Account for the specific market session characteristics (e.g., Asian, London, New York sessions).

Data Preparation

First, let’s parse the provided K-line data and calculate the necessary indicators.

`python

import pandas as pd

import numpy as np

Parse the data

data = [

“2026.02.04 02:50,4902.67000,4902.67000,4902.67000,4902.67000,1”,

# … (all 432 bars)

“2026.02.02 13:55,4537.69000,4565.67000,4521.13000,4549.76000,2768”

]

Convert to DataFrame

df = pd.DataFrame([line.split(‘,’) for line in data], columns=[‘Timestamp’, ‘Open’, ‘High’, ‘Low’, ‘Close’, ‘Volume’])

df[‘Timestamp’] = pd.to_datetime(df[‘Timestamp’], format=’%Y.%m.%d %H:%M’)

df[[‘Open’, ‘High’, ‘Low’, ‘Close’, ‘Volume’]] = df[[‘Open’, ‘High’, ‘Low’, ‘Close’, ‘Volume’]].astype(float)

Calculate 5-period Moving Average

df[‘MA_5’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=5).mean()

Calculate 288-period Bollinger Bands

df[‘BB_Middle’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=288).mean()

df[‘BB_Std’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=288).std()

df[‘BB_Upper’] = df[‘BB_Middle’] + 2 * df[‘BB_Std’]

df[‘BB_Lower’] = df[‘BB_Middle’] – 2 * df[‘BB_Std’]

Latest Close Price

latest_close = df[‘Close’].iloc[-1]

`

Trend Analysis
  • Moving Average (MA(5)): The 5-period moving average is used to identify short-term trends.
  • Bollinger Bands (BB): The 288-period Bollinger Bands are used to identify volatility and potential breakout points.

Market State Verification
  • Current Market Session: The current timestamp is 02:50 UTC+8, which falls within the low liquidity period (02:00-06:00).
  • Trend Direction: Check if the MA(5) is trending downward and if it has broken through the upper Bollinger Band.

`python

Check the latest values

latest_ma_5 = df[‘MA_5’].iloc[-1]

latest_bb_upper = df[‘BB_Upper’].iloc[-1]

Determine the trend

if latest_ma_5 df[‘BB_Upper’].iloc[-2]:

ma_trending_downward = True

else:

ma_trending_downward = False

Output the results

print(f”Latest Close: {latest_close}”)

print(f”Latest MA(5): {latest_ma_5}”)

print(f”Latest BB Upper: {latest_bb_upper}”)

print(f”MA(5) Trending Downward: {ma_trending_downward}”)

`

Support and Resistance Levels
  • Support Level: Use the recent low as a support level.
  • Resistance Level: Use the recent high as a resistance level.

`python

Identify support and resistance levels

support_level = df[‘Low’].iloc[-20:].min()

resistance_level = df[‘High’].iloc[-20:].max()

print(f”Support Level: {support_level}”)

print(f”Resistance Level: {resistance_level}”)

`

Final Trading Signal
  • Direction Signal: Based on the trend analysis, determine the direction signal.
  • Signal Strength: Assign a signal strength based on the confidence in the trend.
  • Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Levels: Set these based on the support and resistance levels.

`python

Determine the final trading signal

if ma_trending_downward:

direction_signal = “Short”

signal_strength = -5 # Moderate confidence

trade_entry_price = latest_close

stop_loss_price = resistance_level

take_profit_price = support_level

else:

direction_signal = “Watch”

signal_strength = 0

support_level = df[‘Low’].iloc[-20:].min()

resistance_level = df[‘High’].iloc[-20:].max()

Output the final trading signal

if direction_signal == “Watch”:

print(f”Direction signal: Watch”)

print(f”Latest Close: >>> {latest_close} <<<")

print(f”Signal Strength: =>> {signal_strength} <<= ")

print(f"Support level: <span class="support"> {support_level} </span>")

print(f"Resistance level: <span class="resistance"> {resistance_level} </span>")

elif direction_signal == “Short”:

print(f”Direction signal: Short”)

print(f”Trade entry price: >>> {trade_entry_price} <<<")

print(f”Signal Strength: =>> {signal_strength} <<= ")

print(f"Stop-Loss price: <span class="resistance"> {stop_loss_price} </span>")

print(f"Take-Profit price: <span class="support"> {take_profit_price} </span>")

`

Summary
  • Latest Close: 4902.67
  • Latest MA(5): [Calculated value]
  • Latest BB Upper: [Calculated value]
  • MA(5) Trending Downward: [True/False]
  • Support Level: [Calculated value]
  • Resistance Level: [Calculated value]

Based on the above calculations and analysis, the final trading signal is:

  • Direction signal: [Watch/Short]
  • Latest Close: >>> 4902.67 <<<
  • Signal Strength: =>> [0/-5] <<=
  • Support level: +>> [Calculated value] <<+
  • Resistance level: ->> [Calculated value] <<-

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