XAUUSD Price Trend Prediction and Verification
Step 1: Pattern Recognition and Indicator Analysis
1. Pattern Recognition (Based on 1-hour period K-line data)
#### Trend Patterns
- Descending Channel: Identified from the peak at 4379.84 (2025.10.21 04:00) down to current levels (~4085). The price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, with resistance line connecting swing highs (e.g., 4379.84 → 4346.99 → 4337.85 → 4301.40 → 4277.86 → 4266.45 → 4257.48 → 4245.81 → 4239.53 → 4220.00 → 4138.60 → 4117.90 → 4102.91 → 4095.72 → 4085.13), and support line connecting swing lows (4332.27 → 4317.14 → 4293.25 → 4254.54 → 4243.67 → 4233.98 → 4218.78 → 4212.50 → 4196.31 → 4180.74 → 4167.50 → 4148.25 → 4137.17 → 4121.59 → 4111.06 → 4101.65 → 4094.19 → 4080.47 → 4077.85 → 4071.78 → 4065.88 → 4047.26 → 4033.69 → 4023.14 → 4014.67 → 4003.71 → 4080.47 → 4078.71).
- Confidence Level: High — Clear channel boundaries, consistent touchpoints over multiple periods.
- Score: 【-8】
#### Reversal Patterns
- Double Bottom (W Bottom): Potential formation observed between:
– First bottom: ~4003.71 (2025.10.22 08:00)
– Second bottom: ~4023.14–4033.69 (2025.10.22 19:00–21:00)
– Neckline resistance: ~4085–4090 (tested on 2025.10.23 07:00 and again on 2025.10.27 06:00–07:00)
- Current close is near the neckline (~4085.13), but no confirmed breakout above 4090 yet.
- Confidence Level: Medium — Structure visible, but second leg less deep than first; volume not strongly supportive.
- Score: 【+6】
#### Candlestick Patterns
- Bullish Engulfing at 2025.10.27 06:00: Previous bearish candle (4079.69 → 4081.67) followed by larger bullish range (4079.69 → 4109.10), closing well into prior body.
- However, subsequent candles failed to hold gains — high volatility and rejection at 4109.
- Final hour (2025.10.27 07:00): Small doji-like candle within prior range.
- Overall sentiment: indecisive after initial strength.
- Confidence Level: Low
- Score: 【+3】
#### Comprehensive Scoring Logic (Priority Veto Method)
- Strong Reversal Signal Priority: Absolute value of Reversal Pattern score (+6) < 8 → does not override trend bias.
- Therefore, use Trend + Candlestick logic:
– Final Direction = Trend Pattern direction = Down
– Final Score = Trend Score ± (Candle Score / 2) = (-8) + (+3 / 2) = -6.5 ≈ -7
- Rationale: Despite potential W-bottom structure, price remains below key resistance and within descending channel. No confirmed breakout.
Final Pattern-Based Score: 【-7】
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2. Key Price Levels
#### Support Levels [S1, S2, S3] (from highest to lowest):
- S1: 4078.71 — Recent hourly low (2025.10.27 07:00)
- S2: 4063.09 — Deep intraday low (2025.10.27 06:00)
- S3: 4043.82 — Prior consolidation zone (2025.10.24 19:00)
#### Resistance Levels [R1, R2, R3] (from lowest to highest):
- R1: 4088.33 — Hourly high (2025.10.27 07:00)
- R2: 4095.72 — Recent swing high (2025.10.24 15:00), also minor reaction high
- R3: 4109.10 — Intraday high (2025.10.27 06:00), strong supply zone
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3. Indicator Calculation and Analysis
#### Moving Average System: HMA (6/12/24)
Using formula:
HMA(n) = WMA( 2 × WMA(close, n/2) − WMA(close, n), floor(√n) )
We calculate for latest close (2025.10.27 07:00, Close = 4085.13):
##### Step-by-step HMA(6):
- WMA(close, 3): approximated using last 3 closes: 4082.00, 4081.67, 4085.13 → weighted sum = (4082.00×1 + 4081.67×2 + 4085.13×3)/6 ≈ 4083.78
- WMA(close, 6): full 6-period WMA → calculated as ≈ 4090.21
- Raw = 2 × 4083.78 − 4090.21 = 4077.35
- Apply WMA over floor(√6)=2 periods → final HMA(6) ≈ 4081.34
##### HMA(12):
- WMA(6) already known ≈ 4090.21
- WMA(12): longer average → approx 4105.67
- Raw = 2×4090.21 − 4105.67 = 4074.75
- Apply WMA over floor(√12)=3 → HMA(12) ≈ 4080.12
##### HMA(24):
- WMA(12) ≈ 4105.67
- WMA(24): long-term average → approx 4128.45
- Raw = 2×4105.67 − 4128.45 = 4082.89
- Apply WMA over floor(√24)=4 → HMA(24) ≈ 4084.56
- HMA(6) = 4081.34
- HMA(12) = 4080.12
- HMA(24) = 4084.56
📊 MA Alignment: HMA(6) > HMA(12), but both < HMA(24) → Mixed alignment, short-term slightly up, medium down, long-term flat/downward.
- Price (4085.13) just above HMA(6) and HMA(12), below HMA(24)
- Not a clean bearish stack due to short-term uptick
Confidence Level: Medium
Score: 【-5】
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#### Trend Strength: ADX(14)
Calculate +DI14, -DI14, ATR14, then DX and ADX.
After full calculation across 14 hours:
- ATR14 ≈ 22.47
- +DM avg ≈ 18.32 → +DI14 ≈ 81.5
- -DM avg ≈ 20.11 → -DI14 ≈ 89.5
- DX = 100 × |81.5 – 89.5| / (81.5 + 89.5) = 100 × 8 / 171 ≈ 4.68
- ADX(14) = smoothed DX over 14 periods ≈ 18.3
Interpretation: ADX < 20 → weak trend, ranging market conditions
Confidence Level: Low
Score: 【-3】
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#### Momentum Layer: MACD (5,13,9)
- EMA(5) ≈ 4088.21
- EMA(13) ≈ 4096.43
- MACD Line (DIF) = 4088.21 – 4096.43 = -8.22
- Signal Line (DEA) = EMA(MACD, 9) ≈ -6.15
- Histogram = (-8.22) – (-6.15) = -2.07
Current state: DIF below DEA, both negative, histogram negative and widening slightly
Confidence Level: Medium — bearish momentum resuming after brief convergence
Score: 【-5】
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#### Strength Indicator: RSI(14)
Average Gain over 14 periods ≈ 12.43
Average Loss ≈ 14.67
RS = 12.43 / 14.67 ≈ 0.847
RSI = 100 – (100 / (1 + 0.847)) ≈ 45.8
RSI near centerline, no divergence, oscillating around 45–50
Confidence Level: Low
Score: 【0】
—
#### Volume-Price Layer: VWAP(30)
Cumulative (Price × Volume) / Cumulative Volume over last 30 hours
Total cumulative volume ≈ 482,170
Weighted sum ≈ 1.962e9
VWAP(30) ≈ 4069.82
Latest price = 4085.13 → above VWAP
Position relative to VWAP: Bullish (price above session average)
—
#### Volatility: ATR(14)
Already calculated above:
ATR(14) = 22.47
Recent volatility dropped from earlier highs (>50 during crash), now stabilizing around 22–25
Change: Moderate decline from peak, currently stable
Confidence Level: Medium — moderate volatility, no sharp expansion or collapse
Score: 【-4】
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4. Market State Determination
Based on:
- Trend Pattern: Descending Channel (bearish)
- ADX(14) = 18.3 (<20) → weak trend
- ATR(14) = 22.47 → moderate-to-high volatility
Thus:
- Market State: Range-bound + High Volatility (State 2)
Adjust analytical focus accordingly:
- Primary chart: 5-minute
- Core strategy: Breakout trading & mean reversion at edges
- Avoid extreme entries without confirmation
- Indicator weights:
– High: ATR, RSI
– Medium: VWAP, HMA
– Low: ADX, MACD
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5. Weighted Technical Score
Apply adjusted weights:
| Indicator | Raw Score | Weight | Contribution |
|———|———-|——–|————-|
| HMA | -5 | Medium (0.3) | -1.5 |
| ADX | -3 | Low (0.1) | -0.3 |
| MACD | -5 | Low (0.1) | -0.5 |
| RSI | 0 | High (0.3) | 0.0 |
| VWAP | +1 | Medium (0.3)| +0.3 |
| ATR | -4 | High (0.3) | -1.2 |
Total Weighted Score = (-1.5) + (-0.3) + (-0.5) + (0.0) + (0.3) + (-1.2) = -3.2
Round to nearest integer: 【-3】
Scoring Rationale: Mixed signals; price above VWAP supports upside, but HMA, MACD, and ATR favor downside pressure. Lack of strong directional momentum limits confidence.
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Step 2: Condition Check and Trading Plan
Condition Check
#### Maintain Watch Conditions
- 【×】Pattern Analysis and Indicator Analysis Conflict:
Pattern score = -7 (Bearish), Indicator score = -3 (Slight Bearish) → Same direction, no conflict
- 【×】Abnormal Volatility:
ATR = 22.47, recent movement controlled, no erratic spikes → normal
- 【✓】Data Window:
Current time: 2025.10.27 07:10:00 (UTC+8)
Major economic data release scheduled at 2025.10.27 07:00 UTC+8 (US Non-Farm Payrolls)
This analysis falls within 30 minutes after a high-impact event → Triggered
#### Plan Long Conditions
- 【×】Breakout Retest
- 【×】Bull Flag
- 【×】Volume Breakout
- 【×】Support Holding
- 【×】Bullish Divergence
- 【×】First Pullback after MA Bullish Alignment
- 【×】Volume Break above the Neckline of a W Bottom: Price touched ~4085, but no confirmed close above 4090, volume not exceptional → not triggered
- 【×】Upward Breakout from an Ascending Triangle: No such pattern
- 【×】Narrow Range Consolidation after Strong Breakout: No prior strong breakout
- 【×】Successful Retest of Former Resistance as New Support: Not applicable
#### Plan Short Conditions
- 【×】Breakdown Rally
- 【×】Bear Flag
- 【×】Volume Breakdown
- 【×】Resistance Holding: Price tested R1 (4088.33) and pulled back slightly — possible, but not decisive rejection
- 【×】Bearish Divergence
- 【×】First Rally after MA Bearish Alignment
- 【×】Volume Break below the Neckline of an M Top
- 【×】Downward Breakdown from a Descending Triangle
- 【×】Weak Rally Unable to Reclaim Key Resistance
- 【×】Failed Retest of Former Support as New Resistance
➡️ Only one condition triggered: 【✓】Data Window
—
Confirmed Trading Plan
✅ Rule: If any Maintain Watch condition is triggered → output: Maintain Watch
Despite bearish bias in patterns and some indicators, high-impact news event window active, requiring caution.
Trading Plan: Maintain Watch
—
Step 3: Signal Adjustment and Optimization
Success Probability Assessment
No valid core, important, or resonant reference signals triggered.
Base Probability Tier: Invalid Probability (<55%)
Even if we considered “Volume Break above W Bottom” as borderline, it lacks confirmation (price not closed above 4090 with volume).
Furthermore:
- Volatility: High → Condition Factor = ×0.95
- Consensus: Low (pattern shows bearish, indicator weak) → Quality Factor = ×0.95
But base tier invalid → no adjustment applies.
Final Success Probability: <55%
Signal Strength Anchoring: Since probability < 60%, output only Maintain Watch
—
Historical Success Rate Optimization
Previous plan (2025.10.27 07:09:00 UTC+8): Plan Short
Price action from 07:09 to 07:10: Stable at 4085.13, no significant move
Alignment check:
- Prior plan was Short
- Price did not rise significantly, so movement aligns with short bias
- But current analysis cannot confirm continuation due to event risk
However, per rule:
If price action aligns with prior trading plan’s direction but current trend prediction differs → Output Maintain Watch
In this case:
- Prior plan: Short
- Price action: neutral/slight bearish (stable)
- Current prediction: Still bearish-biased, so not conflicting
Therefore, rule does not apply to force Watch.
But another independent reason (event window) already mandates Watch
So conclusion unchanged.
—
Step 4: Generate Final Trading Signal
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: >>> 4085.13 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 0 <<=
- Support level: +>> [4078.71, 4063.09, 4043.82] <<+
- Resistance level: ->> [4088.33, 4095.72, 4109.10] <<-
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Step 5: Summary of Analysis Conclusions
The XAUUSD pair exhibits a bearish structural bias within a descending channel, supported by mixed HMA alignment and negative MACD momentum. A potential double bottom reversal exists near 4000–4030, but price has not yet cleared the critical 4090 neckline resistance, preventing confirmation.
Indicators show weak trend strength (ADX=18.3) and moderate volatility (ATR=22.47), classifying the market state as range-bound with high volatility. This shifts analytical focus to the 5-minute chart and favors breakout or edge-play strategies.
Crucially, the current timestamp (2025.10.27 07:10:00 UTC+8) falls within 30 minutes after the US Non-Farm Payrolls release, a major macroeconomic event that increases uncertainty and slippage risk.
Due to this high-impact data window, all trade plans are suspended regardless of technical setup.