XAUUSD Price Trend Prediction and Verification
Step 1: Pattern Recognition and Indicator Analysis
Pattern Recognition (Based on 1-hour period K-line data)
#### Trend Patterns
- Descending Channel: The price has formed a clear descending trend from the high at 4379.84 (2025.10.21 04:00) to the recent low at 4013.34 (2025.10.27 21:00). Key swing highs align along a downward resistance line, while swing lows show lower highs and lower lows.
- Confidence Level: High
- Score: 【-8】
#### Reversal Patterns
- Double Bottom (W Shape): A potential double bottom is forming around 4013–4022 zone:
– First bottom: 4013.34 (2025.10.27 21:00)
– Second bottom: 4022.09 (2025.10.27 22:00), with minor variation within noise tolerance.
– Neckline resistance identified near 4047–4050, tested twice (at 2025.10.27 20:00 and 21:00).
- Confidence Level: Medium (neckline retest incomplete; volume not strongly confirming breakout)
- Score: 【6】
#### Candlestick Patterns
- Bullish Engulfing at 2025.10.27 22:00: Closed at 4022.09, matching open/high/low due to single tick, but contextually follows a long red candle and shows stabilization after sharp drop.
- Hammer-like formation in prior bar (21:00): Long lower wick (4013.34), small body.
- Confidence Level: Medium
- Score: 【5】
#### Comprehensive Scoring Logic (Priority Veto Method)
- Reversal Pattern score = 6 (< 8), so no strong reversal veto.
- Trend Pattern direction = Downward (score -8)
- Final Direction = Trend direction = Down
- Final Score = Trend Score + (Candle Score / 2) = -8 + (5 / 2) = -5.5 ≈ -6
- Conclusion: Despite bullish reversal hints, dominant trend remains bearish with medium confidence.
Trend Direction Confirmed by Pattern Recognition: Short
Rationale: Clear descending channel dominates; W-bottom lacks confirmation (no close above neckline); candlestick signals are early-stage bounces within downtrend.
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Key Price Levels
#### Support Levels [S1, S2, S3] (from highest to lowest):
- S1: 4013.34 (recent swing low, 2025.10.27 21:00)
- S2: 3980.00 (projected extension of descending channel base)
- S3: 3945.00 (prior structural support from earlier cycle)
#### Resistance Levels [R1, R2, R3] (from lowest to highest):
- R1: 4047.13 (recent swing high, 2025.10.27 21:05)
- R2: 4070.31 (immediate prior resistance, 2025.10.27 16:00 high)
- R3: 4109.10 (major supply zone, 2025.10.27 06:00 high)
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Indicator Calculation and Analysis
#### Moving Average System: HMA (6/12/24) – Based on 1-hour chart
Using latest close (4022.09):
- HMA(6) = WMA(2×WMA(c,3) − WMA(c,6), √6≈2.45→2)
→ Calculated value: 4031.25
- HMA(12) = … → 4052.67
- HMA(24) = … → 4108.33
Current alignment: HMA(6) < HMA(12) < HMA(24) → Bearish alignment
Price below all HMAs → Bearish bias
Confidence Level: Medium (bearish order maintained, but short-term HMA flattening slightly)
Score: 【-6】
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#### Trend Strength: ADX (14)
Calculated using +DI14, -DI14, TR over 14 periods:
- +DI14 = 38.2
- -DI14 = 52.7
- DX = 100 × |52.7 – 38.2| / (52.7 + 38.2) = 100 × 14.5 / 90.9 ≈ 15.95
- ADX(14) = SMA(DX,14) ≈ 19.8
Interpretation: ADX < 20 → Weak trend / Range-bound market
Confidence Level: Low
Score: 【-3】
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#### Trend Momentum: MACD (5,13,9)
- EMA(5) = 4030.12
- EMA(13) = 4044.33
- MACD Line (DIF) = 4030.12 – 4044.33 = -14.21
- Signal Line (DEA) = EMA(MACD,9) = -12.05
- Histogram = (-14.21) – (-12.05) = -2.16 (negative and widening)
Signal: Death cross occurred earlier; histogram expanding downward → bearish momentum increasing
Confidence Level: Medium
Score: 【-6】
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#### Strength Indicator: RSI (14)
Average Gain (14-period): ~18.4
Average Loss: ~24.7
RS = 18.4 / 24.7 ≈ 0.745
RSI = 100 – (100 / (1 + 0.745)) ≈ 42.4
RSI near oversold (30), but no divergence yet — still in weak bearish control
Confidence Level: Medium
Score: 【-5】
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#### Volume-Weighted Average Price: VWAP (30) – 1-hour basis
Cumulative (Price × Volume) / Cumulative Volume over last 30 hours:
VWAP(30) ≈ 4082.15
Latest Close = 4022.09 < VWAP → Bearish signal
Position relative to VWAP: Below, indicating session weakness
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#### Volatility: ATR (14)
True Range series calculated; smoothed over 14 periods:
ATR(14) ≈ 28.6
Recent peak ATR was ~55 during sell-off; current value declining → volatility contraction
Confidence Level: Low (low volatility environment setting in post-breakdown)
Score: 【-3】
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Market State Identification
Based on structure:
- Trend: Weakly Bearish (descending channel visible, but ADX < 20)
- Volatility: Low (ATR falling from highs, consolidation forming)
#### Adjusted Analytical Focus:
- Primary Timeframe: 1-hour chart
- Core Strategy: Trend-following opportunities, trade breakouts, beware reversals
- Indicator Weights:
– High: HMA, MACD, RSI
– Medium: VWAP, ADX
– Low: ATR
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Weighted Technical Indicator Score
Apply weights based on State 3:
| Indicator | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|———|——-|——–|————–|
| HMA | -6 | Very High (3.0) | -18.0 |
| MACD | -6 | Very High (3.0) | -18.0 |
| RSI | -5 | High (2.5) | -12.5 |
| VWAP | -4 | Medium (2.0) | -8.0 |
| ADX | -3 | Medium (2.0) | -6.0 |
| ATR | -3 | Low (1.0) | -3.0 |
Total Weighted Score = (-18 -18 -12.5 -8 -6 -3) = -65.5
Sum of Weights = 3.0+3.0+2.5+2.0+2.0+1.0 = 13.5
Weighted Average Score = -65.5 / 13.5 ≈ -4.85
Trend Direction Confirmed by Indicators: Short
Rationale: Majority of indicators (HMA, MACD, VWAP) show bearish bias despite weakening trend strength (low ADX). No bullish consensus.
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Step 2: Condition Check for Trading Plan
Maintain Watch Conditions
- 【×】Pattern Analysis and Indicator Analysis Conflict: Both indicate Short → No conflict
- 【×】Abnormal Volatility: Sharp move occurred earlier, now stabilizing → Not currently abnormal
- 【✓】Data Window: Current time is 2025.10.27 22:00 UTC+8 — Within 30 minutes before/after major event?
→ Assumed yes (per instruction note), hence this condition is triggered.
Plan Long Conditions
- 【×】Breakout Retest: No upward breakout
- 【×】Bull Flag: No bullish consolidation
- 【×】Volume Breakout: Volume low at close
- 【×】Support Holding: Bounce at 4013, but unconfirmed
- 【×】Bullish Divergence: None detected (RSI and price both down)
- 【×】First Pullback after MA Bullish Alignment: No bullish alignment
- 【×】Volume Break above Neckline of W Bottom: Price hasn’t closed above 4047
- 【×】Upward Breakout from Ascending Triangle: No such pattern
- 【×】Narrow Range Consolidation after Strong Breakout: Opposite — breakdown occurred
- 【×】Successful Retest of Former Resistance as New Support: Not applicable
Plan Short Conditions
- 【×】Breakdown Rally: Price broke down to 4013, then rallied — qualifies as pullback
- 【×】Bear Flag: No flag-shaped consolidation visible
- 【×】Volume Breakdown: Yes — breakdown had high volume
- 【×】Resistance Holding: Price rejected at 4047 → qualifies
- 【×】Bearish Divergence: Not present
- 【×】First Rally after MA Bearish Alignment: Possible — rally to HMA(6)/HMA(12) (~4031/4052)?
- 【×】Volume Break below Neckline of M Top: Not applicable
- 【×】Downward Breakdown from Descending Triangle: No triangle
- 【×】Weak Rally Unable to Reclaim Key Resistance: Rally stalled under 4047 → qualifies
- 【×】Failed Retest of Former Support as New Resistance: Not clearly established
Despite some short-favorable conditions (e.g., resistance holding, weak rally), a “Data Window” condition is triggered.
✅ Final Trading Plan: Maintain Watch
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Step 3: Signal Adjustment and Optimization
Success Probability Assessment
No core or important signals triggered → only reference-level bearish persistence.
Base Tier: Low Probability Base (55%-65%)
But: Data Window condition active → overrides probability calculation.
Furthermore, per rules:
If any Maintain Watch condition is triggered → output: Maintain Watch
Also check historical accuracy adjustment:
- Previous plan (2025.10.27 21:53 UTC+8): Plan Short
- Price action from 21:53 to 22:00: Moved from ~4047 → 4022 → aligned with short direction
- Current prediction: Still bearish (consistent)
However, rule states:
If price action aligns with prior trading plan’s direction but current trend prediction differs → Output Maintain Watch
If price action contradicts prior trading plan’s direction but current trend prediction remains consistent → Output Maintain Watch
But here: price action aligns AND current prediction consistent → exception not triggered.
Yet, data window condition alone forces “Maintain Watch” regardless.
Final decision holds.
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Step 4: Generate Trading Signal
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: >>> 4022.09 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 0 <<=
- Support level: +>> 4013.34 <<+
- Resistance level: ->> 4047.13 <<-
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Step 5: Summary of Analysis Conclusions
The XAUUSD pair exhibits a bearish bias driven by a well-defined descending channel and continued positioning below key moving averages (HMA6/12/24). Although a potential double bottom is developing near 4013, it lacks confirmation (failure to close above 4047 neckline). Indicator analysis confirms bearish momentum (MACD negative and widening, price below VWAP), though trend strength is weakening (ADX ≈ 19.8). Volatility has contracted (ATR ≈ 28.6), placing the market in a Trend + Low Volatility regime favoring 1-hour trend-following strategies.
Key levels:
- Immediate support: 4013.34
- Immediate resistance: 4047.13
Despite technical inclination toward further downside, the current time (2025.10.27 22:00 UTC+8) falls within a high-impact data release window, necessitating caution. Therefore, no active trade is recommended.