XAUUSD价格趋势分析 (2026-04-14 20:45:03)

Key Levels (H1 Pivot Points)
  • Pivot_R3: 4798.99
  • Pivot_R2: 4790.94
  • Pivot_R1: 4782.91
  • Pivot_PP: 4774.86
  • Pivot_S1: 4766.83
  • Pivot_S2: 4758.78
  • Pivot_S3: 4750.75

Trend Analysis
  • H4_Tag: BULL
  • H1_Tag: BULL
  • M5_Tag: BEAR
  • Alignment_Type: Pullback
  • Major_Bias: BULL

M5-First Engine

#### Phase 1: Signal Verification

  • Signal_Dir: BEAR
  • Signal_Type: REJECTION
  • Signal_Strength: 1.95
  • Key_Level: 4774.86

#### Phase 2: Quality Scoring

  • Momentum_Score: 0.575 (RSI: 48.65, Dir: BEAR)
  • Volume_Score: 0.06 (Vol_Ratio: 1.03)
  • Ctx_Mod: 1.0 (Tier: 2, Details: Pullback)
  • Div_Mod: -1.0 (Gap: -11.35, Confirmed: False)
  • Action_Bonus: 0.0 (Conditions: 0)

  • Distance Factor (Dist_Val): 0.84 (Distance_S2: 14.54)
  • Momentum Factor (Momentum_Val): 0.575
  • Target_Score: 0.7075 (Dist: 0.84, Mom: 0.575)

  • Raw_Score: 0.635 (Mom: 0.575 + Vol: 0.06 + Ctx: 1.0 + Div: -1.0 + Act: 0.0)
  • Target_Score: 0.7075
  • Final_Score: 1.3425

  • Threshold Calculation:

Base_Threshold: 1.2 (Pullback)

Vol_Adj: 0.0 (g_ATR_H1 / ATR_H1_20Avg – 1.0) * 0.5

threshold_val: 1.2 (Base: 1.2 + Adj: 0.0)

  • Final Decision Logic:

Step 1: Final_Score (1.3425) >= 0.0

Step 2: No Hard Veto Triggered

Step 3: Final_Score (1.3425) >= threshold_val (1.2)

Status: EXECUTE

Reason: Score 1.3425 vs Thresh 1.2 (Adj: 0.0) | Veto None | NegScore None

  • Signal Strength Quantification:

SSR: (1.3425 – 1.2) / 1.2 = 0.11875

Strength_Int: 5

Strength_Val: -5 (SSR: 11.875%)

Execution & Risk Management

  • Entry: 4773.32
  • Stop-Loss (SL): 4793.32 (Nearest Resistance: 4782.91, SL: 4782.91 + 1.81, SL_Distance: 20.00)
  • Take-Profit (TP): 4761.32 (Nearest Support: 4766.83, TP: 4766.83 – 1.81, Dynamic Extension: 0.0, Final_TP: 4761.32)

Final Signal
  • Direction Signal: BEAR
  • Signal Strength: =>> -5 <<=
  • Entry Price: >>> 4773.32 <<<
  • Stop Loss: ->> 4793.32 <<-
  • Take Profit: +>> 4761.32 <<+

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